{"id":120498,"date":"2026-05-07T10:41:09","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T10:41:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/?p=120498"},"modified":"2026-05-11T05:20:04","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T05:20:04","slug":"what-predicts-divorce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/navigating-challenges\/what-predicts-divorce\/","title":{"rendered":"What Predicts Divorce"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/YTXP1B8PU0c?si=OHTC3lcP9pc7xO-K\" width=\"804\" height=\"350\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">&#65279;<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<div class=\"subscribeYT_highlight\"><div class=\"subscribe_channel\">\r\n            <div class=\"subscribe_text\">Join millions <span class=\"sub_text1\">building healthier, happier<\/span> <span class=\"sub_text2\"> relationships.<\/span><\/div>\r\n            <a class=\"subscribe-btn-in-content\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@Marriagedotcom?sub_confirmation=1\" target=\"_blank\">\r\n            <img src=\"\/images\/youtube_icon_small.png\" class=\"icon-left\" alt=\"YouTube\">\r\n            <span>Subscribe<\/span>\r\n            <img src=\"\/images\/bell_icon_new.svg\" class=\"icon-right\" alt=\"Extra Icon\">\r\n            <\/a>\r\n        <\/div><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&ldquo;What are you doing?&rdquo;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&ldquo;Nothing.&rdquo;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One word. Delivered with a sigh, a dismissive glance, or an eye roll. It seems like nothing. But according to decades of relationship research, moments like this one are far more predictive of divorce than most couples realize.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This article is part of Marriage.com&rsquo;s <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Science Says<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> series, where we unpack surprising, research-backed truths about how relationships actually work.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In episode two, we are looking at what predicts divorce more reliably than cheating, and why the answer is not found in dramatic betrayal but in small, repeated moments that slowly erode the foundation of a marriage.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why-cheating-is-not-the-biggest-threat-to-your-marriage\"><\/span><b>Why cheating is not the biggest threat to your marriage<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-120500\" src=\"https:\/\/image.marriage.com\/advice\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/2405190799.jpg\" alt=\"Senior couple having argument \" width=\"804\" height=\"350\"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When people imagine what ends a marriage, infidelity tends to top the list. It is dramatic, it is clear, it has a beginning and an end point. Most couples can identify it the moment it happens.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But research consistently tells a different story about what actually predicts divorce. The work of Dr. John Gottman, who spent four decades studying thousands of couples in his laboratory at the University of Washington, identified four specific communication behaviors that predict the end of a relationship with striking accuracy. He called them the Four Horsemen: criticism, contempt, defensiveness, and stonewalling.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Of all four, contempt is the single most powerful predictor of divorce. Not infidelity. Not financial stress. Not incompatibility. Contempt: the slow, quiet erosion of respect that happens in small moments, most of which neither partner consciously registers as dangerous.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What-contempt-actually-looks-like-in-everyday-life\"><\/span><b>What contempt actually looks like in everyday life<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Contempt does not always announce itself. It does not show up wearing a name tag. It arrives in moments that feel minor, and that is precisely what makes it so insidious.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It looks like an eye roll when your partner tells a story you have heard before. It sounds like sarcasm when they suggest something you disagree with. It feels like dismissiveness when they share something that matters to them and you offer a one-word response, or none at all.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is the slight curl of the lip during an argument. The heavy sigh that says &ldquo;here we go again&rdquo; without a word being spoken.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Each of these moments, taken in isolation, seems harmless. A bad day. A momentary irritation. But<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/relationship\/how-to-fix-contempt-in-a-relationship\/\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">contempt in a relationship<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is not defined by any single instance. It is defined by pattern.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And when the pattern takes hold, it communicates something deeply corrosive to the receiving partner: you are beneath me. What you feel does not deserve my genuine attention.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That message, delivered repeatedly through small moments rather than one dramatic confrontation, slowly breaks emotional safety. And once emotional safety is gone, connection follows.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How-small-disrespect-breaks-emotional-safety\"><\/span><b>How small disrespect breaks emotional safety<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Emotional safety is the quiet foundation beneath everything good in a relationship. It is the felt sense that you can be yourself with this person, that your feelings will be taken seriously, that you will not be mocked or minimized for what you need or how you feel.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When respect is consistently present, emotional safety is maintained almost automatically. Partners can disagree, frustrate each other, go through hard seasons, and still feel fundamentally secure in the relationship. But when small moments of disrespect accumulate, that safety begins to erode.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The mechanism is straightforward. Every eye roll, every dismissive comment, every instance of sarcasm during a vulnerable moment, teaches the receiving partner something: sharing yourself here is not safe. Over time, they begin to share less. They self-edit more. They stop bringing things up. The relationship starts to feel more like coexistence than genuine connection.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And here is the critical point the video makes: this does not happen all at once. Relationships do not weaken in dramatic collapses. They weaken slowly, through the accumulation of small moments that were never individually identified as dangerous.<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/save-your-marriage\/save-your-marriage-by-avoiding-these-four-predictors-of-divorce\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/save-your-marriage\/save-your-marriage-by-avoiding-these-four-predictors-of-divorce\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The predictors of divorce<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that Gottman identified are powerful precisely because they are gradual. By the time most couples recognize the pattern, significant damage has already been done.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why-we-do-it-without-realizing-it\"><\/span><b>Why we do it without realizing it<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Very few people in a relationship are consciously choosing to be contemptuous toward someone they love. Most of these moments are automatic, habitual, and below the level of deliberate decision-making.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The eye roll happens before a conscious thought. The sarcasm is just the way you have started talking to each other. The dismissiveness is a product of familiarity, of being so used to someone that you have stopped really hearing them. None of this is usually intentional. All of it still causes damage.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This matters because it changes the nature of the solution. The problem is not that one partner is secretly malicious. The problem is that a pattern has taken root that neither person may have noticed forming. Identifying it requires a kind of honest self-observation that most people do not apply to their day-to-day interactions in a long-term relationship.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A useful question to ask yourself: if a close friend were watching your last three difficult conversations with your partner, what would they notice about how you respond when you are frustrated, tired, or disagreeing? Not the content of what was said, but the tone, the body language, the micro-expressions. That reflection often reveals more than any single argument could.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"The-shift-that-changes-everything\"><\/span><b>The shift that changes everything<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-120236\" src=\"https:\/\/image.marriage.com\/advice\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/2394032617.jpg\" alt=\"Woman comforting man\" width=\"804\" height=\"350\"><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The video&rsquo;s prescription is both simple and genuinely demanding in practice: replace judgment with understanding. Listen before reacting. Understand before responding.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This is not a call for conflict avoidance or constant agreement. It is a call for a fundamental shift in orientation during difficult moments. Instead of responding to your partner&rsquo;s behavior with an evaluation, right or wrong, smart or foolish, reasonable or dramatic, respond first with curiosity.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What is underneath what they are saying? What do they actually need right now? What would it feel like to be them in this moment?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That shift from judgment to understanding does not require you to abandon your own perspective. It simply delays the reactive response long enough to create genuine connection rather than escalating defensiveness.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And it sends a message that is the opposite of contempt: I see you. What you feel matters to me. You are not beneath my attention.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Building this into daily interactions is how<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/communication\/strategies-to-improve-communication-with-your-partner\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">healthy communication in marriage<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> becomes a protective force rather than just an aspiration. The couples who are most resilient over time are not the ones who never feel frustrated with each other.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They are the ones who have built a consistent habit of responding to that frustration without diminishing the person they married.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Practical-ways-to-interrupt-the-pattern\"><\/span><b>Practical ways to interrupt the pattern<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Recognizing contempt in your own behavior is the first step, but recognition alone does not change a pattern. Here are concrete ways to begin interrupting it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Notice your non-verbal responses first.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The eye roll and the dismissive sigh often happen before words do. Start paying attention to your body language during disagreements. If you catch yourself doing it, acknowledge it: &ldquo;Sorry, that came across as dismissive. I&rsquo;m listening.&rdquo;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Separate the behavior from the person.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Contempt attacks character. Healthy frustration addresses behavior. &ldquo;You never listen to me&rdquo; is contempt. &ldquo;I felt like I wasn&rsquo;t being heard just now&rdquo; is honest and specific without attacking who your partner is as a person.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Create a ratio of appreciation.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Gottman&rsquo;s research found that healthy couples maintain roughly five positive interactions for every negative one. If your recent interactions have been heavy on criticism and light on warmth, deliberately introduce appreciation. Not as a performance, but as a genuine counterweight to the negativity that has been building.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Slow down reactive moments.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The moments most likely to produce contemptuous responses are the ones where you are tired, frustrated, or already triggered. Slowing down, even by taking a breath before responding, creates just enough space between the feeling and the reaction to choose something better.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Name the pattern together.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> If contempt has been present in your relationship for a while, naming it explicitly with your partner, in a calm moment rather than a heated one, is more effective than trying to quietly manage it alone. &ldquo;I&rsquo;ve noticed we&rsquo;ve been pretty harsh with each other lately. I want to change that&rdquo; is the beginning of a different kind of conversation.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Common-questions-about-what-predicts-divorce\"><\/span><b>Common questions about what predicts divorce<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<style>#sp-ea-120499 .spcollapsing { height: 0; overflow: hidden; transition-property: height;transition-duration: 300ms;}#sp-ea-120499.sp-easy-accordion>.sp-ea-single {border: 1px solid #e2e2e2; }#sp-ea-120499.sp-easy-accordion>.sp-ea-single>.ea-header a {color: #444;}#sp-ea-120499.sp-easy-accordion>.sp-ea-single>.sp-collapse>.ea-body {background: #fff; color: #444;}#sp-ea-120499.sp-easy-accordion>.sp-ea-single {background: #eee;}#sp-ea-120499.sp-easy-accordion>.sp-ea-single>.ea-header a .ea-expand-icon.fa { float: left; color: #444;font-size: 16px;}<\/style><div id=\"sp-ea-120499\" class=\"sp-ea-one sp-easy-accordion\" data-ex-icon=\"fa-angle-up\" data-col-icon=\"fa-angle-down\"  data-ea-active=\"ea-click\"  data-ea-mode=\"vertical\" data-preloader=\"\" data-scroll-active-item=\"\" data-offset-to-scroll=\"0\"><div class=\"ea-card ea-expand sp-ea-single\"><h3 class=\"ea-header\"><a class=\"collapsed\" data-sptoggle=\"spcollapse\" data-sptarget=#collapse1204990 href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  aria-expanded=\"true\"><i class=\"ea-expand-icon fa fa-angle-up\"><\/i> Is contempt always obvious, or can it be subtle? <\/a><\/h3><div class=\"sp-collapse spcollapse collapsed show\" id=\"collapse1204990\" data-parent=#sp-ea-120499><div class=\"ea-body\"><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It is often remarkably subtle, which is why it is so dangerous. A single heavy sigh, a quick eye roll, or a slightly sarcastic tone can all carry contempt without either partner labeling it as such. The cumulative effect of these small moments is what makes the pattern damaging, even when no single instance seems significant.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"ea-card  sp-ea-single\"><h3 class=\"ea-header\"><a class=\"collapsed\" data-sptoggle=\"spcollapse\" data-sptarget=#collapse1204991 href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  aria-expanded=\"false\"><i class=\"ea-expand-icon fa fa-angle-down\"><\/i> Can a relationship recover once contempt has developed?<\/a><\/h3><div class=\"sp-collapse spcollapse \" id=\"collapse1204991\" data-parent=#sp-ea-120499><div class=\"ea-body\"><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yes, but it requires deliberate effort from both partners. The antidote to contempt, according to Gottman's research, is building a culture of appreciation and genuine respect. This means actively noticing what your partner does well, expressing gratitude consistently, and making a conscious choice to respond to frustration with curiosity rather than judgment.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Couples therapy can be particularly valuable here, as a skilled therapist can help both partners identify the pattern and practice new responses in a supported environment.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"ea-card  sp-ea-single\"><h3 class=\"ea-header\"><a class=\"collapsed\" data-sptoggle=\"spcollapse\" data-sptarget=#collapse1204992 href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  aria-expanded=\"false\"><i class=\"ea-expand-icon fa fa-angle-down\"><\/i> What is the difference between criticism and contempt? <\/a><\/h3><div class=\"sp-collapse spcollapse \" id=\"collapse1204992\" data-parent=#sp-ea-120499><div class=\"ea-body\"><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Criticism focuses on a specific behavior: \"You forgot to call me.\" Contempt attacks the person's character: \"You are so thoughtless.\" The distinction matters because character attacks trigger defensiveness and shame rather than genuine reflection or change.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Contempt implies a fundamental moral or personal inferiority, while criticism, though also worth managing carefully, addresses an action rather than an identity.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"ea-card  sp-ea-single\"><h3 class=\"ea-header\"><a class=\"collapsed\" data-sptoggle=\"spcollapse\" data-sptarget=#collapse1204993 href=\"javascript:void(0)\"  aria-expanded=\"false\"><i class=\"ea-expand-icon fa fa-angle-down\"><\/i> How do I bring this up with my partner without starting a fight? <\/a><\/h3><div class=\"sp-collapse spcollapse \" id=\"collapse1204993\" data-parent=#sp-ea-120499><div class=\"ea-body\"><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Choose a calm, connected moment rather than the aftermath of a conflict. Frame it around what you want more of rather than what you want to stop: \"I want us to feel really close and safe with each other.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I've been thinking about some ways we could make our conversations feel better.\" Starting with a shared goal rather than a complaint makes it far easier for your partner to hear what you are saying without becoming defensive.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Final-thoughts\"><\/span><b>Final thoughts<\/b><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What predicts divorce is rarely what most people expect. It is not the big betrayal or the explosive fight. It is the eye roll that happened a hundred times. The sarcasm that became the default tone. The dismissiveness that slowly taught a partner their feelings were not worth taking seriously.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The good news is that small patterns cut both ways. The same daily consistency that allows contempt to take root is the same consistency that allows respect and warmth to rebuild.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Every moment you choose understanding over judgment, curiosity over dismissal, and genuine listening over reactive response, you are making a deposit into the emotional safety of your relationship. Those deposits compound over time, just as the withdrawals do.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Watch the full Marriage.com video on what predicts divorce more than cheating, and then share your thoughts in the comments below. Has this changed how you think about the small moments in your relationship? Your perspective might be exactly what someone else needs to read today.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false,"raw":""},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#65279; &ldquo;What are you doing?&rdquo; &ldquo;Nothing.&rdquo; One word. Delivered with a sigh, a dismissive glance, or an eye roll. It seems like nothing. But according to decades of relationship research, moments like this one are far more predictive of divorce than most couples realize. This article is part of Marriage.com&rsquo;s Science Says series, where we unpack surprising, research-backed truths about how relationships actually work.&nbsp; In episode two, we are looking at what predicts divorce more reliably than cheating, and why the answer is not found in dramatic betrayal but in small, repeated moments that slowly erode the foundation of a <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1394,"featured_media":120500,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2502],"tags":[2602],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120498"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1394"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=120498"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120498\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":120501,"href":"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120498\/revisions\/120501"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/120500"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=120498"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=120498"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.marriage.com\/advice\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=120498"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}